The tie bet is the baccarat table's clearest example of a large payout concealing bad mathematics. 8:1
sounds generous, but a tie occurs in about 9.5% of deals, which means a fair payout would be higher
than the one offered. The gap between the fair and the offered payout is the house edge, and here it is
about 14% — higher than most slots and fourteen times higher than the banker bet at the same table.
The commonest error is looking for patterns. Baccarat tables usually display a scorecard showing the
results of previous hands, and it creates the impression that a tie is "due". Each deal is independent
of the last, and the scorecard carries no information about the future — it is a free way for the
casino to encourage betting.
If you play baccarat, the whole decision is one: the banker bet, skip the tie. The rest is decoration.